Strategic Allocation in 2026: Insurers’ Response to Economic Uncertainty

The global financial landscape is undergoing profound transformation as macroeconomic shifts, interest rate movements, and currency dynamics reshape investment priorities. Uncertainty around monetary policy, regulation, and geopolitics continues to weigh on markets, yet structural changes are also opening new paths for growth. Investors are increasingly looking beyond traditional instruments, with asset-backed finance and private markets gaining relevance as durable sources of value. For insurers and asset managers, this environment demands a careful balance of resilience and innovation, with strategic positioning and disciplined risk management becoming essential to capture opportunities while navigating the challenges ahead.

Plenty of challenges, as well as opportunities, lie ahead!

Key Takeaways

• Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Investors remain cautious amid rate cut debates, inflation pressures, and geopolitical risks impacting emerging markets.
• Asset-Backed Finance (ABF): Regulatory pressure and demand are accelerating the shift from traditional bank lending to scalable ABF solutions in Europe.
• Private Credit Focus: Insurers are increasing allocations to private credit and ABF, attracted by yield and diversification benefits.
• Equity Outlook: Public equity is expected to deliver moderate returns in 2026, while global bond markets remain neutral with tighter spreads.

Key Investor Considerations for 2026

• Inflation Pressures: Both the US and EU are experiencing elevated inflation, driven by tariffs, energy prices, and demand shifts, with expectations of slower growth in 2025–2026.
• Monetary Policy Shifts: The Fed is cautiously cutting rates amid uncertainty, while the ECB maintains a wait-and-see approach, creating divergent monetary conditions.
• Ongoing Geopolitical Risks: Rising tensions from US–China technology decoupling, Russia–NATO conflicts, Middle East instability, and fragmented global trade policies are intensifying volatility.
• Global Fragmentation: Increased protectionism and tariffs are disrupting supply chains, pressuring export-dependent economies, and creating regional disparities in growth prospects.

Asset Allocation Trends

• Private Credit Growth: Insurers globally are increasing allocations to private credit, with US life insurers leading (~36%), followed by the UK (~18%) and continental Europe (8–10%).
• Selective Private Markets: Allocation shifts focus on private credit strategies, infrastructure debt, and asset-backed finance, while equity allocations remain more cautious.
• Fixed Income Adjustments: Investors are targeting wider spreads in fixed income, reflecting confidence in current rate levels but caution due to volatility.
• Diversification Priorities: Despite market uncertainties, diversification remains central, though applied with greater caution and flexibility.

Spotlight on Asset-backed Financing (ABF)

With European banks increasingly constrained by stricter regulations and risk management requirements, ABF has emerged as a pivotal source of alternative, secured and scalable capital—fuelling economic growth as well as private credit market diversification. ABF is also seeing significant uptake in other countries, propelled by private credit managers and non-bank lenders who are filling gaps left by banks.

Regulatory Developments

Regulatory developments in 2025 and 2026 reflect a global push toward stronger capital standards, enhanced disclosure, and resilience measures for insurers, with regional frameworks adapting to local market needs. These changes, spanning from Solvency II reforms in Europe to ICS adoption in Asia and other jurisdictions, aim to increase transparency, risk management, and long-term stability across the insurance sector.

Outlook for Key Asset Classes

• Public Equity: Solid growth expected in 2025 with some acceleration in 2026, though risks remain from tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Public Credit: Neutral outlook as spreads tighten and yields fall in markets with monetary easing.
• Leveraged Loans: Positive outlook supported by infrastructure investment and deregulation, though liquidity and default risks persist.
• Private Equity: Outlook tilts negative to neutral as market volatility dampens deal activity and fundraising.
• Private Credit: Strong growth expected as investors seek yield and diversification amid a volatile environment.
• Real Estate: Mixed performance, with a favourable outlook for Europe but neutral for the US, influenced by high interest rates.
• Asset-backed Finance: Positive momentum as securitisation gains traction, delivering strong returns despite broader market risks.

This comprehensive overview highlights the challenges and opportunities insurers face for 2026 in relation to the macroeconomic landscape, emphasizing the importance of strategic asset allocation and robust risk management.